WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation predicts holiday retail sales in November and December will surpass one trillion dollars for the first time. NRF estimates spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2%. In 2024, holiday sales increased by 4.3 percent to reach $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research, Mark Mathews, said the U.S. economy continues to perform steadily despite ongoing inflation and trade uncertainties. “As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies,” Mathews said.
NRF also expects retailers to hire 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers, a slower pace than last year’s 442,000 seasonal hires. Some hiring activity may have occurred earlier than usual to support October holiday promotions and buying events.
A complicating factor this year is the federal government shutdown. The timing, immediately ahead of the peak shopping season, could temporarily reduce spending power and delay federal payments.
NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics also report that consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person on holiday gifts, food, decorations and seasonal items. This is the second-highest level in the survey’s 23-year history.
Key forecast highlights
- Total holiday sales forecast: $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion
- Growth over 2024: 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent
- Average consumer spending: $890.49 per person
- Seasonal hiring: 265,000 to 365,000 workers
- Holiday season timeframe: November 1 through December 31
- NRF forecast excludes auto dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants in order to focus on core retail
The NRF bases its forecast on economic modeling and key indicators, including consumer spending, disposable income, employment, and inflation. As the leading authority and voice in the retail industry, NRF provides monthly retail sales data and annual forecasts for major retail periods, including the holiday season.
For more information, visit NRF’s Winter Holiday FAQ and Winter Holiday Headquarters.
