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NRF study: Trump tariff proposals could cut Americans' annual spending power by $78 billion

"A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”

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WASHINGTON — American consumers may face price hikes on everyday goods if new tariffs on imports are implemented, according to a study released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The report warns that the tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump could cut between $46 billion and $78 billion in U.S. consumer spending power each year, affecting six key categories: apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear, and travel goods.

The NRF’s report, titled “Estimated Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Imports,” explores the effects of a universal 10-20% tariff on imports from all foreign countries, coupled with an additional 60-100% tariff on imports from China. The proposed tariffs, the NRF argues, would result in higher retail prices across the board as U.S. retailers struggle to absorb increased import costs.

"A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country," said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy. "This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”

The study’s findings reveal significant price increases across all six consumer categories. A $40 toaster oven could end up costing $48 to $52, a $50 pair of sneakers might rise to $59 to $64, and a $2,000 mattress and box spring set could spike to $2,128 to $2,190 under the proposed tariffs. NRF underscores that low-income families, who spend a higher share of their income on essentials, would be hit hardest by these hikes.

Some key projections from the report include:

  • Apparel: Consumers would face an additional $13.9 billion to $24 billion annually.
  • Toys: Prices could rise by $8.8 billion to $14.2 billion.
  • Furniture: Shoppers might pay $8.5 billion to $13.1 billion more each year.
  • Household Appliances: Costs could increase by $6.4 billion to $10.9 billion.
  • Footwear: Tariffs may push costs up by $6.4 billion to $10.7 billion.
  • Travel Goods: Consumers could pay an additional $2.2 billion to $3.9 billion.

The report also highlights that China remains the primary supplier for many of these goods, meaning additional tariffs on Chinese imports would lead to disproportionately high increases in consumer prices.

While the tariffs are intended to bolster U.S. manufacturing, NRF’s study suggests that benefits to domestic producers may be overshadowed by the broader economic impact. With Americans potentially forced to pay significantly more for essential products, NRF warns of an overall reduction in consumer spending power that could hinder economic growth.

The full report, detailing the NRF’s findings and predictions on these proposed tariffs, is available online for those seeking deeper insight into the potential consumer impact.

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