NRF: Tariff uncertainty weighs on early-2026 imports

WASHINGTON — Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see its first month-over-month rise in six months during January, but overall volumes are forecasted to remain lower year over year until spring, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”

Trade policy remains a major concern as the year starts. Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that the lingering effects of tariff increases in 2025 are likely to continue influencing cargo flows in 2026, amid a broader global push to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances.

“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”

U.S. ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in November, the latest month with finalized data, down 2.3% from October and 6.5% from the previous year. December volumes are projected at 1.99 million TEU, reflecting a 6.6% year-over-year decline, due to seasonal slowdown and higher import levels late in 2024, driven by concerns over potential port disruptions. Many retailers also sped up imports earlier in 2025 to reduce tariff risk.

Looking ahead, January imports are forecast at 2.11 million TEU, up month over month but down 5.3% year over year. February is projected at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6%; March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4%; and April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%. May is expected to reach 2.07 million TEU, marking the first year-over-year increase since last August.

Global Port Tracker monitors containerized imports at major U.S. ports on the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast, providing historical data and forecasts. It offers retailers insights into changing trade and logistics conditions.