NEW YORK — American families are set to spend roughly the same on back-to-school shopping this year as last, but the flat headline number masks a more cautious consumer underneath, according to a new Deloitte survey released on Thursday. Households are stretching purchases later into the summer, hunting harder for deals, and shifting dollars away from laptops and tablets toward jeans and backpacks.
Deloitte's 2026 Back-to-School Survey found that spending on K-12 students will hold at about $30.4 billion nationally, or roughly $557 per student — down just $13 from last year in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, though, families are planning to spend 6% less than they did a year ago, evidence that some real belt-tightening is expected.
That caution tracks with a darkening economic mood. Fifty-seven percent of parents surveyed said they expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, the gloomiest reading Deloitte has recorded since 2020. Nearly a quarter of respondents said they were worried about keeping up with upcoming bills.
The pullback isn't evenly distributed across income levels. Lower-income families, those earning $50,000 or less, plan to spend 10% more than last year, and middle-income households plan to spend 12% more — both groups pointing to higher prices as the driver. Upper-middle-income parents earning $100,000 to $199,000, by contrast, plan to cut spending 9%, largely out of worry about where the economy is headed, while higher earners making $200,000 or more plan the steepest pullback, down 20%, with nearly two-thirds saying they simply have less money on hand.
Categories are shifting too. Clothing and accessories, the single biggest line item in most back-to-school budgets, is expected to rise 22% to an average of $323 per child — even as parents name it the first thing they'd cut if money gets tight. Technology spending is headed the other way, down 16% to $417 per child, as families defer new laptops, tablets and phones for another year.
To free up room in the budget, half of parents surveyed said they're cutting spending elsewhere, most often dining out and entertainment.
Value, but not necessarily the cheapest option
Despite the tighter mood, Deloitte's data suggests price-consciousness isn't the same as bargain-basement shopping. About 31% of parents qualify as "hyper value-seekers" — adopting four or more cost-saving tactics such as switching brands, shopping at discount retailers, buying private label, or using cashback sites. Counterintuitively, this group plans to spend 14% more than other shoppers, suggesting they are being selective rather than simply cutting back.
"While many parents are willing to do all they can to help set their children up for success, financial concerns are leading them to sharpen their budgets," said Natalie Martini, Deloitte's vice chair and U.S. Retail and Consumer Products sector leader. "Cautious spending behavior exists across income groups, but value-seekers demonstrate that it's not always about the cost — some consumers are willing to spend if they find value in the purchase."
Shoppers are also waiting longer to buy. Deloitte found only 48% of planned spending is expected to occur by the end of July, down sharply from 61% last year, with another 31% pushed into early August — a reversion to pre-pandemic shopping patterns after several years of earlier starts. Mass merchants remain the dominant destination, drawing 80% of shoppers, ahead of online retailers, warehouse clubs and department stores.
Digital research tools appear to correlate with bigger baskets: shoppers who use search, social media and generative AI together plan to spend an average of $737, well above the $381 spent by those who use no digital tools at all. "GenAI users, for example, may spend more time comparing products and filling their carts with more purchases, which can create a further benefit for retailers to lean into the technology," said Brian McCarthy, principal and Retail Strategy leader at Deloitte Consulting LLP.
AI anxiety enters the classroom conversation
The survey also surfaced growing unease about artificial intelligence in schools. Forty-nine percent of parents said they worry their child relies on AI too much, in the classroom and outside it, while just 33% said their child's school has explicit AI guidelines — and 38% said they simply don't know whether one exists. Still, 13% of parents said they plan to pay for AI tutoring or camps this year, a signal Deloitte flagged as a potential growth opportunity for ed-tech companies and retailers alike.
The findings are based on an online survey of 1,207 parents with at least one child in grades K-12, conducted May 22-29, 2026.
