CINCINNATI, Ohio — A growing wave of protectionist sentiment is reshaping grocery spending patterns across North America and Latin America. According to the latest Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) from customer data science firm dunnhumby, 71% of Canadian and 43% of Mexican consumers say they plan to purchase fewer U.S. grocery products in 2025.
Based on a survey of 8,500 shoppers across six countries, the report points to tariffs and political tensions as key drivers of this shift. Over three-quarters of respondents from Canada, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia cited U.S. tariffs as the top reason for curbing their U.S. grocery purchases.
“Canadians and Latin Americans are shifting their shopping behavior to spend their money where their values align. That has implications for all brands and retailers as they need to truly understand their customers to make sure they are living up to the standards expected of them,” said Matt O’Grady, President of the Americas, dunnhumby.
Key findings include:
- U.S. retail mass and chain stores in Canada had on average, a 3% drop in sales penetration compared to the ninth wave of this study in December 2024. This drop reflects a loss of approximately 500,000 Canadian households. National Canadian chains in discount and mass formats gained 3% during this period.
- Nearly 25% of Canadians and Latin Americans who are buying less from the U.S. this year also said that this would become permanent behavior in the future. This equates to $15 to $20 billion of annual grocery purchasing power for Canada.
- While consumers in Canada and Latin America aim their protectionist behavior at the U.S., American shoppers exhibit little interest in retaliating against tariffs levied by countries in the Americas. Instead, 21% of U.S. consumers plan to reduce their purchases from China, although the U.S. imports less than 5% of its food supply from China
- Buying from home sentiment is up in most countries, but least of all in the U.S. 63% of Canadians, 60% of Brazilians, 59% of Colombians, 54% of Mexicans, and 44% of Chileans said they intend to buy more from their own countries. Only 30% of Americans agreed with buying more from their own country.
- Channel penetration of discount and dollar channels shifted the most for Canadians (up 3% to 75%) and for U.S. (up 4% to 57%) consumers in this wave. U.S. shoppers are more likely exploring discount and dollar stores due to concerns about finances, but significant sales shifts to these channels have not occurred yet.
Despite growing trade frictions, American shoppers showed limited inclination to reduce purchases from countries in the Americas. Instead, 21% said they planned to reduce grocery imports from China, though these account for less than 5% of the U.S. food supply.
“Although consumers, retailers, and brands are navigating uncertain times, there are concrete steps all can take in the midst of this disruption. For consumers that may mean rapidly changing their behaviors so they protect their wallets, but for retailers and brands it means they should be turning to data insights to determine which strategic actions they need to take to stay ahead,” said “O’Grady.
The CTT study is designed to uncover shopper needs, perceptions, and behavior over time, and to complement dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index. The latest CTT study is available for download on Thursday, May 29, 2025.
dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, and the U.S. The online interviews for Wave 10 took place in April 2025. Approximately 1,000 to 2,000 individuals were interviewed in each of the six countries for the current wave of the study.
