U.S. import cargo volumes set to fall in first half of 2026

WASHINGTON — Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to decline year-over-year during the first half of 2026 as tariffs continue to affect retail supply chains, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”

A Supreme Court decision could arrive at any time regarding the legality of the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. However, NRF noted that even if the court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, there are concerns the administration might impose tariffs using other trade authorities, leading to more challenges and uncertainty for retailers and importers.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is weighing on import volumes. “The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented makes trade forecasting very difficult,” Hackett said, adding that last year’s government shutdown is still making up-to-date government data difficult to come by. “Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.99 million twenty-foot equivalent units in December, although the Ports of Houston and Charleston have not yet reported their data. That total was down 1.7% from November and down 6.6% year over year. Imports for the full year in 2026 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Ports haven't reported January figures yet, but Global Port Tracker estimates the month at 2.11 million TEU, which is an increase from December ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, though it still reflects a 5.2% decrease year over year. February is projected at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1% compared to last year; March at 1.89 million TEU, down 12%; April at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1%; May at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3%; and June at 2.12 million TEU, up 8%.

Those projections indicate that first-half 2026 imports will reach 12.27 million TEU, which is a 2% decrease from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The projected year-over-year increases for May and June reflect easier comparisons following a significant drop in imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025.