All signs point to resilient holiday spending as consumers balance value and celebration

NEW YORK — The National Retail Federation’s 2026 holiday forecast points to continued consumer resilience heading into the year-end shopping season, despite ongoing economic pressures and higher prices.

According to Chris Tomsovic, global Macro Foresight lead at Accenture, shoppers are carefully managing their budgets but remain committed to spending on the traditions and experiences that matter most.

NRF forecasts 2026 holiday sales growth

Consumers expected to prioritize the holidays as they remain mindful of their budgets.

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“The NRF forecast reflects what we're seeing in the market in that consumers are likely to remain resilient heading into the holidays,” Tomsovic said. “While many are watching their budgets, they're still spending on the traditions and experiences that matter most.”

The forecast comes as inflation remains a key concern for consumers. Following the latest Consumer Price Index increase, retailers are preparing for a season that could be defined by two distinct shopper segments.

“On the heels of yesterday’s CPI rise, we are expecting retailers to serve two very different shoppers this season,” Tomsovic said. “Some are focused on value and promotions, while higher-income consumers remain more willing to spend. The challenge is to meet both needs without sacrificing the overall customer experience.”

Accenture’s Holiday Shopping Survey supports that outlook, finding that shoppers are not necessarily reducing holiday spending but are becoming more deliberate about where and how they spend their money. Among U.S. consumers, 31% expect their holiday budgets to increase this year. However, more than half (53%) of those planning to spend the same amount or more attribute that increase to the rising cost of goods rather than a desire to purchase additional items.

Overall, U.S. holiday budgets are expected to increase 12% year over year, representing a 9.6% compound annual growth rate over the past three years. Millennials are projected to spend the most, with average holiday budgets reaching $829, compared with $696 among Gen Z consumers.

Spending is expected to remain concentrated in traditional holiday categories. Clothing and accessories top the list, with 52% of consumers planning purchases in the category, followed by food and beverage treats and gift cards or vouchers, each cited by 49% of shoppers.

Economic pressure is also influencing where consumers shop. Nearly half of respondents said they plan to purchase gifts from mass merchants and warehouse clubs, reflecting a continued focus on value and convenience.

Retailers are also seeing shoppers start earlier than ever. Nine in 10 consumers expect to begin holiday shopping before Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while nearly one in five shoppers started purchasing gifts before August. That figure is almost double the share recorded in 2025.

The findings suggest that while inflation and affordability concerns remain front and center, consumers are entering the holiday season determined to celebrate. For retailers, success may hinge on balancing value-driven promotions with differentiated experiences that resonate across a broad spectrum of shoppers.