CHICAGO – As consumer behavior continues to shift, retailers and brands should start their holiday media efforts earlier, invest more heavily in product discovery, and prepare their product data for AI-assisted shopping, according to Circana.
In its Holiday 2026 outlook, Circana identified earlier shopping, social commerce, creator influence, and AI-assisted discovery as trends reshaping how consumers find and purchase products. The company said advertisers need to respond by looking beyond traditional holiday promotional windows and individual marketing channels.
Circana's Annual Holiday Survey found that 48% of consumers browsed before Thanksgiving in the 2025 holiday season, while 44% planned to shop earlier overall. Online shopping also remained widespread, with 81% of consumers shopping online and 47% using smartphones to browse and buy.
Circana said those patterns mean that holiday media campaigns that begin around Thanksgiving risk reaching consumers after they have already started researching products and making purchase decisions.
The company recommends that retailers and brands build discovery directly into their holiday strategies by treating creators, social commerce, and retail media as core demand-generating channels rather than as supplemental investments.
Social commerce has become increasingly important as consumers discover and purchase products on the same platforms. Circana estimates that TikTok Shop has influenced about 1% of total U.S. retail sales and 3% of e-commerce sales. It also said the influencer economy has grown into a $31 billion market.
Circana recommends that marketers monitor early indicators of holiday demand rather than waiting for sales results. Engagement patterns, such as saves, shares, and comments, along with creator activity, social commerce trends, AI-assisted queries, and retail media performance, can signal consumer interest before purchases occur.
AI is becoming another important part of the discovery process. A Circana Shopper Survey conducted in March found that 25% of consumers had used an AI recommendation to purchase a consumer packaged goods product.
Consumers are increasingly using AI assistants to compare products, generate gift ideas, summarize reviews, and create shortlists. Circana said brands should ensure their product data is structured, accurate, and consistent across channels so AI assistants can understand and recommend their products.
The company also recommends a broader approach to measurement. Rather than evaluating retail media, e-commerce, stores, AI, and creator campaigns in isolation, marketers should connect results across channels and assess their effectiveness against overall business outcomes.
“Ask your media network if they can measure beyond their own four walls. Total market measurement is critical to understand the true impact of your media, especially during holiday season when cross-retailer shopping behavior increases,” said Moody Khan, VP, RMN Measurement Strategy at Circana.
Circana also advised advertisers to identify when demand is likely to peak in their categories and to begin building awareness ahead of that period.
“In competitive categories, decide your peak season and how early to lead in with media, usually two to four weeks of buildup,” said Jonathan Dizney, VP, Global Measurement Media Consulting at Circana.
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