WASHINGTON — The early peak of the shipping season at major U.S. container ports is winding down, with import volumes expected to remain elevated in August before declining through much of the rest of 2026, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Retailers accelerated imports earlier this year to bring merchandise into the country ahead of tariff changes and amid ongoing uncertainty across global supply chains. Despite the earlier-than-usual peak, NRF said retailers are positioned to have sufficient inventory for the holiday shopping season.
“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”
Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expired July 23. A new round of Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on forced labor, covering 60 economies and affecting 99% of U.S. imports, took effect the following day.
“Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.”
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.23 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEU, in June, the latest month for which final figures are available. That was up 13.2% from a year earlier but down 0.7% from May. Imports during the first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% from the same period in 2025.
July volume is projected at 2.21 million TEU, down 7.6% year over year, while August is forecast at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.2%.
Import volumes are then expected to decline steadily through November. September is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 2.8% from a year earlier; October at 2.13 million TEU, up 2.7%; and November at 2.03 million TEU, up 0.3%. December volume is expected to increase slightly to 2.06 million TEU, up 2.5% year over year.
The busiest month of 2026 appears to have been May, with ports handling 2.24 million TEU. The traditional late-summer and fall import peak has shifted earlier and become more spread out in recent years as retailers have adjusted shipping schedules in response to supply chain disruptions and anticipated tariff increases.
Global Port Tracker currently expects U.S. imports to total 25.5 million TEU for all of 2026, up 0.1% from 25.4 million TEU in 2025.
Global Port Tracker is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates and tracks major container ports on the U.S. East, West and Gulf coasts.
The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members is available at www.globalporttracker.com.
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