WASHINGTON — Retailers are accelerating imports ahead of potential new tariffs expected as early as August, pushing U.S. container traffic toward what could be the busiest month on record at the nation’s major ports.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, import volume is forecast to reach 2.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, surpassing the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 during the post-pandemic recovery.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
Gold said retailers are working to bring merchandise into the United States before additional tariffs could raise costs for businesses and consumers. He also noted that supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran remain a concern.
“The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher,” Gold said. “Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits.”
Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs, introduced in February, are set to expire on July 24. The Trump administration is also expected to introduce a new round of tariffs related to forced-labor concerns as early as August, prompting many importers to front-load shipments.
“Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases.”
The nation’s major ports handled 2.24 million TEU in May, the latest month for which final data is available. That represented a 14.9% increase from a year earlier and a 10.1% gain from April.
June volume is projected at 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7% year over year. Combined with May and the projected July total, the figures indicate an unusually early peak in the shipping season as retailers position inventory for the back-to-school and holiday shopping periods.
The first half of 2026 is expected to total 12.77 million TEU, a 2% increase from the same period last year.
After July, import activity is forecast to slow. August volume is projected at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.5% from a year earlier, followed by 1.99 million TEU in both September and October and 1.92 million TEU in November.
The report noted that the traditional peak shipping season, once centered in October, has shifted earlier in recent years as retailers adapt to supply chain disruptions, labor uncertainty and evolving U.S. trade policy.
U.S. imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down slightly from the record 25.5 million TEU handled in 2024.
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