
NRF: Retail growth to continue in 2025 despite economic uncertainty
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Retailers are particularly concerned about a proposed port service fee that could be passed onto cargo owners, adding to supply chain costs.
“These results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies,“ says NRF's Chief Economist.
Despite a monthly decline, six of nine retail categories showed year-over-year gains, led by online sales, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise.
“As long as these tariffs are in place, Americans will be forced to pay higher prices on household goods,” says NRF's David French.
“Weak consumer perceptions and uncertainty from the lack of clarity regarding future government policies and regulations can significantly hinder business operations.”
According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in January declined 0.9% seasonally adjusted month over month.
NRF has issued a statement about the Trump administration’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners.
Beehler brings extensive experience in retail policy and most was head of policy communications at Alibaba Group.
Retailers have accelerated imports of key products, anticipating a possible East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike in January and new tariffs from President Trump.
“Consumers came out to spend this holiday season and clearly underscored the solid growth in the U.S. economy,” says NRF economist.
The annual event raises funds and celebrates leaders shaping the future of retail.
Retailers are securing inventory ahead of potential tariff increases
"A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”
“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” NRF's Kleinhenz said.